Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.040341 2.705727 3.607462 4.949474 6.950648e+00 9.917219e+00 14.835128
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.433550 2.179663 3.386424 5.597674 9.839582e+00 1.834022e+01 38.990433
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.020738 1.729828 3.055934 5.973038 1.308586e+01 3.267023e+01 108.401045
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.822232 1.547899 3.117425 7.314204 2.083714e+01 7.727074e+01 536.097613
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.662982 1.368533 3.109258 8.729760 3.306835e+01 2.025547e+02 5057.702118
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.549033 1.233761 3.148498 10.633672 5.579518e+01 6.868338e+02 447424.556016
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.455412 1.102663 3.129951 12.659845 9.484945e+01 3.126379e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.355615 0.906019 2.772363 12.824932 1.289902e+02 1.269510e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.276090 0.731093 2.371436 12.228660 1.594587e+02 5.935025e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.230736 0.640171 2.231829 13.237562 2.493751e+02 2.419505e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.205261 0.601778 2.290343 16.251890 5.243207e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.188271 0.584848 2.447864 21.355240 1.447175e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.165494 0.539821 2.454265 25.926566 4.122533e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137831 0.462230 2.204938 26.172094 7.822737e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.114039 0.390138 1.927371 24.972935 1.295840e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.101486 0.360341 1.902461 29.303195 6.014212e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.090278 0.331213 1.856435 33.677637 4.724413e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.081605 0.309740 1.849571 40.263328 3.767895e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.073721 0.288352 1.823103 47.192132 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.063742 0.252130 1.628892 45.121707 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.054649 0.217141 1.415175 40.308303 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049155 0.198848 1.342075 42.820506 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046120 0.192287 1.377773 53.850234 NaN NaN NaN